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‘Handicapping’ Category

  1. Horse Racing Betting

    March 11, 2015 by saratogasam

    The Golden Rules of Horse Racing Betting

     

    By Simon Head

    Forget old wives’ tales, home-spun wisdom and the advice of cabbies, says Tony Paley.

    If you really want to know how to punt on horses, you should engrave these 37 Commandments on tablets of stone and carry them with you wherever you go. Not literally, of course – that would be impractical.

    Rules. Mavericks and misfits might not like to admit it, but it’s especially true in gambling that some solid guidelines are a major help in formulating a strategy to beat the bookies.

    There’s no short cut to making money backing horses. The bookmakers work full-time at getting money from punters, so backers shouldn’t expect to have to do anything different.

    Victor Chandler, for instance, not only has a form expert but a speed ratings buff, a breeding analyst and a man whose job it is to collate inside information.

    Punters need to take their betting just as seriously, but if they take the following 37 Commandments on board, they will give themselves a much better chance of getting in front and staying there.

    RULE 1 – The first question to ask when you want a bet is: ‘How will this race be run?’ And the second: ‘Will it suit the horse I am interested in backing?’

    RULE 2 – Watch as many horse races as possible. Even if the over-excitable Mark Johnson or the almost terminally bored Graham Goode is commentating.

    RULE 3 – Look at every horse in the race, not just the one you’ve backed.

    RULE 4 – Concentrate virtually without exception on the better class of animals in the higher-grade races.

    RULE 5 – Cram as much form study in as time will allow.

    RULE 6 – When you find a horse ‘coming to the boil’ and running into form, back on a winnable rating, stick with it. It will almost certainly pay its way in time.

    RULE 7 – The going and the draw are the two most important variables in determining the outcome of any horse race.

    RULE 8 – If there are doubts about the going, draw bias, the price or any other highly important variable, wait till the very last minute until having a bet.

    RULE 9 – Keep your pockets sewn up when the ground is officially heavy.

    RULE 10 – The influence of weight is vastly overrated. In the majority of cases, horses will not reverse the form, no matter how favourably off they are in terms of the weights.

    RULE 11 – Only forgive a horse an ‘unlucky-in-running’ run once. The vast majority who repeat the offence will repeatedly find trouble.

    RULE 12 – Follow horses that travel well in races and/or have demonstrated a turn of foot in a truly run race.

    RULE 13 – The Ei Ei Memorial Rule. Favour horses with a willingness to win.

    RULE 14 – Never ever back a horse in a major handicap first time out, unless it is trained by Sir Mark Prescott.

    RULE 15 – Look, look and look again at the stats history of the big races, but use them intelligently. Buffoons on television telling us that no horse above draw 9 can win the Magnet Cup should remember that this is only true when the ground isn’t on the soft side of good. That’s a fact.

    RULE 16 – Be wary of each-way betting. In the long run, you’re almost certainly going to win more having all-win bets of £50 than £25 each-way. And, anyway, if you’re dithering about dabbling each-way because you’re unsure if your horse will win, why are you having a bet?

    RULE 17 – It’s the Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot, the Derby, the Grand National. You don’t have to bet.

    RULE 18 – Concentrate at specialist courses like Brighton or Goodwood on horses that have demonstrated an ability to perform at those tracks, or have so much in hand their relative inability to do so won’t matter.

    RULE 19 – Study courses until you can study them no longer. Take on board the fact that Ascot’s short straight requires different qualities in a horse than York or Newbury’s galloping terrains.

    RULE 20 – Seven furlongs is a specialist distance. End of story.

    RULE 21 – In sprints, concentrate solely on horses in form.

    RULE 22 – Cut out and keep the entries for big races. They are stuffed with clues about what trainers expect and, even more crucially, know about the horses in their charge.

    RULE 23 – Similarly, read and keep all the stable interviews with trainers. They will often give information about going and distance preferences for their horses.

    RULE 24 – Don’t pay over the odds for tips. There is enough quality information around for the cost of a newspaper. Graham Wheldon’s Sprintline column (Racing & Football Outlook), Andrew Barr’s Mark Your Card feature (Racing Post Weekender), The Guardian’s inside info Horse Sense column on Saturdays and Malcolm Heyhoe’s internet tipping service ( gg.com ) are all highly recommended.

    RULE 25 – The number of race meetings is set to continue growing at an alarming rate. Have an area you can specialise in, whether it be Group races, sprints or middle-distance handicaps.

    RULE 26 – Think like a bookmaker. Compile your own betting forecast, but above all, be honest with yourself. Ask yourself if you would really offer those odds if you were a layer.

    RULE 27 – The following books are a must for any serious punter’s library: Nick Mordin, Betting For A Living; Alan Potts, Against The Crowd; Mark Coton, Value Betting. The best volume to start with is the Racing Post’s Definitive Guide To Betting On Horses.

    RULE 28 – Open up accounts with as many bookmakers as you can, in order to take advantage of the best prices available.

    RULE 29 – Get access to the net and use the free Racing Post form at racingpost.co.uk. The races are laid out in a line-byline format, which is much easier to use and far more useful than the form in the newspaper version.

    RULE 30 – Subscribe to a form book. The official Raceform version, Timeform’s Perspectives and Superform are all more than adequate. Stick with the one that suits you.

    RULE 31 – Put a bank together that you’re comfortable with, and have a staking plan sorted out that suits your particular style of betting.

    RULE 32 – If you’re at the track, don’t go for a drink before the race, watch the horses going down to the start. You’ll learn an awful lot about what sort of horses are suited to different types of ground and what plus and minus points to look for in a horse just prior to running.

    RULE 33 – Don’t believe all the recent press about ignoring the effect of the draw. Stalls positions are often crucial to the outcome of a race, especially in the big handicaps. This is even true of the long-distance races like the Tote Ebor at York, the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    You’ll find Graham Wheldon’s detailed analysis of draw biases in the Racing Post Definitive Guide book (see the 27th Commandment) or at the front of the official Form Book.

    RULE 34 – Big-name jockeys invariably win big races. Be wary of backing runners in the major races with lesser-known or inexperienced riders on board.

    RULE 35 – Have your biggest bets in a period, normally between June and September, when the ground remains fairly constant.

    RULE 36 – Never underestimate the psychology and emotion involved in gambling. If your mood swings are extreme, you’ll find it difficult to survive the inevitable losing runs.

    RULE 37 – Go to the paddock. Learn the different types of physique and the good and bad signs displayed by horses before the race. Nick Mordin’s book The Winning Look covers all the bases.

    Find more articles at: www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk

    Inside Edge Magazine Submitted By Q

    #horseracing #betting #odds


  2. Tails

    March 7, 2015 by saratogasam

    Tails – And We’re Off !

    Saratoga Suckers. It’s NOT A Sucker Bet !

    Welcome to the new and improved Saratoga Suckers.

    Your home for Horse Racing Rants and Raves

    Since 2004.

    Yes. This is our official blog.

    The Starting Gate

    It is now post time. The horses are on the track.

    The premier web site for horse racing aficionados is up and running.

    So sit back and enjoy the commentary.

    Odds-on this site will morph into something you can call home.

    Not to mention…..it’s FREE !

    Get in on the conversation and……..

    May The Horse Be With You !

    email us at:
    admin@SaratogaSuckers.com

    A Wee Bit About Us

    We Want YOUR STORY !

    Saratoga Suckers

    The Funny Cide of Saratoga Springs, NY and it’s Horse Racing legacy !

    Saratoga Suckers’s Profile

    #sucker




  3. Responsible Wagering

    April 19, 2014 by saratogasam

    Responsible Wagering With An Online Sportsbook

     

    By: Nathan Santora

    If you are new to online sports wagering or looking for a reliable online sportsbook you have come to the right place. Online sports wagering and casino gambling have increased at an exponential rate since the birth of the internet. Unfortunately there are a large number of unscrupulous online sportsbook sites and virtual gambling operators whose only business is swindling money from the recreational sports bettor. Thankfully there are plenty of legitimate online sportsbook wagering sites from which to choose.
    In order to pick an online sportsbook that will fit you best you need to evaluate your betting history to determine what sports or bet types you wager on the most. If you have not bet on sports before you will most likely wager on sports you enjoy watching.

    The most important question to ask before deciding to deposit money at an online sportsbook is do they pay. You can start your research by visiting the many sports betting forums that have appeared with the advent of internet sports betting. Do not make the mistake in thinking that every sportsbook who advertises at an online sports gambling discussion group or sportsbook forum is legitimate. Many so called watchdog websites are nothing more than internet portals whose owners have not opened an account, placed a wager and successfully completed a withdrawal from the advertisers on their sites. You are better off seeking the opinions of the forum posters by either posting questions or using the forums search feature to investigate sportsbooks that interest you.

    At this point you should make a list of online sportsbooks that focus on sports you like to bet or are compatible with your wagering style based on what you have learned from forum posters.

    The next step is to start eliminating online sportsbooks under consideration that do not offer either reduced juice, opinionated lines or substantial sign up and reload bonuses. Beware of any online sportsbook that offers all three incentives they may be scams and most likely will not be in business for long.

    Most online sportbooks regularly offer a cash bonus in order to attract new business. The online sportbooks that offer larger then normal sign up and reload bonuses are targeting recreational bettors and they typically are not interested in acquiring professional gamblers as customers. Nearly every online sportbook offers a standard bonus equal to 10% of your initial deposit but there are a number of quality online sportbooks who have sign up and reload bonuses of 20% or more.

    Some sportsbooks provide gamblers with the option of wagering at reduced juice versus receiving sign up and reload bonuses. In my opinion every sports bettor needs at least one reduced juice sportsbook in their arsenal. Traditionally sportsbooks require sports bettors to wager at -110 where you risk $1.10 to win $1.00. Reduced juice sportsbooks allow you to wager at less than -110 usually -107 to -105 or risk $1.05 to win a $1.00. It might not seem like much of a discount but it definitely adds up over time.

    It is highly recommended that you have at least three fully funded online sportsbook accounts even if you only wager on one or two sports. It is very difficult to be a profitable sports bettor without the ability to shop for the best line.

    With a little forethought and research you can ensure your funds are safe, benefit from promotional bonuses and win more on every wager by utilizing reduced juice sportsbooks.

    Nathan Santora is the developer of The Online Sportsbook Directory promoting responsible sports betting as legitimate form of investing and recreation.

    #sportsbook  #bettor  #juice  #wagering